Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 17.943375 20.881278 24.096399 27.869002 32.167082 36.903733 42.511268
2024-10-27 12.246669 16.018369 20.584939 26.487629 33.878345 42.786223 54.291346
2024-11-03 10.153726 14.537084 20.270715 28.240746 38.939875 52.700389 71.612932
2024-11-10 8.943071 13.795678 20.557406 30.524273 44.666377 63.806334 91.412867
2024-11-17 7.490524 12.373211 19.579593 30.776912 47.466662 71.089526 106.623569
2024-11-24 6.218272 10.949016 18.313169 30.322041 49.038539 76.617527 119.683529
2024-12-01 5.129486 9.599132 16.916765 29.402664 49.685978 80.700719 130.814686
2024-12-08 4.416220 8.740088 16.152470 29.328721 51.543295 86.647360 145.105585
2024-12-15 3.876686 8.087240 15.622738 29.536171 53.808433 93.333770 160.980738
2024-12-22 3.152494 6.959807 14.094213 27.807767 52.605568 94.272717 167.639030
2024-12-29 2.894461 6.694613 14.087960 28.769966 56.096326 103.176603 187.965449
2025-01-05 2.731578 6.594717 14.373582 30.286174 60.686095 114.254968 212.697739
2025-01-12 2.330143 5.942808 13.542468 29.681536 61.539794 119.277048 228.071926
2025-01-19 1.907275 5.164275 12.347955 28.229407 60.691428 121.297268 238.548947
2025-01-26 1.815538 5.144310 12.753127 30.088173 66.451316 135.846902 272.731275
2025-02-02 1.768925 5.225985 13.390222 32.506124 73.554541 153.452700 313.813184
2025-02-09 1.579520 4.902802 13.058291 32.773621 76.276373 162.905781 340.286732
2025-02-16 1.371319 4.483114 12.431466 32.292184 77.358984 169.222362 361.189672
2025-02-23 1.167610 4.027943 11.641305 31.318954 77.256654 173.128326 377.615064
2025-03-02 1.035110 3.750312 11.252263 31.240674 79.103979 181.110506 402.663494
2025-03-09 0.931821 3.538262 10.999888 31.460293 81.636419 190.688289 431.577080
2025-03-16 0.764139 3.075884 9.990345 29.630229 79.214727 189.572149 438.367378
2025-03-23 0.717060 3.008126 10.075255 30.649097 83.651247 203.569542 477.744747